Dale Pinkert: "I Could See Apple Trading at $150"

Coach with a bearish outlook on Apple, his expectations for the S&P, his concerns around the trade wars, and his take on why options are like relationships...

Round 2 of our guest hosts yesterday, and Harry Melandri (

Respice Finem Macro

) hosted Dale Pinkert for an excellent episode…

The comments were great again:

I’d better get back soon or I’ll be out of a host seat…

Apple to $150?

Yes, this IS a picture of bears eating apples… 😏

Dale has been bearish on Apple for a while - last time he was on Talking Markets in February, he said that of the Mag-7, “Apple was the first one they took out to shoot.” And back in November, he was pointing out that it hadn’t made a new high in a while so might be in trouble.

Now? Well, he’s looking for the opportunity to short it… Explanation with chart here:

Basically, Dale says Apple is “breaking down.” He’d love to see a rally back to $230, and that’s where he’d go for the short. “Eventually, I could see Apple trading at $150,” he said.

• China already reportedly banned government employees from using iPhones late 2023, and reportedly then expanded that ban to state-owned companies. “They could just say ‘no one can buy Apple phones,” Dale said.

• During the last round of tariffs in President Trump’s first term, Apple “tried to diversify into India, [but] they’ve only been able to move about 19% of their production away from China… And that’s 5 years.”

💡Dale isn’t putting the short Apple trade on quite yet. “I could see us going to $210 and then bouncing, but I have a hard time getting short after a $40 decline in less than 5 days,” he said. “[That said], there’s nothing wrong with having a piece on and hoping you’re early.”

Melt-Up Incoming, But the Plumbing is Leaking

“We’ve had a sea change,” but a lot of the bears aren’t short yet as “they’re waiting for the melt-up,” Dale said. “I think they’re going to get it.”

“I think there could be a 2 week recovery, and a rally back to $5,850-$5,900,” Dale said.

🪢That’s pretty much in line with JD’s take, though he did describe it as a “face-ripping” rally.

But then… Dale sees “another wave down that could take the S&P down to $4,800-$4,900,” he said. “And I think the Fed will have the bazookas out by then.”

A couple of standouts:

• Nvidia: “I pulled my horns in on Nvidia… It looks like it could maybe rally back towards $130.”

• Semiconductors: “I’m thinking we could rally back to $128.”

But Dale’s main concern isn’t the Mag 7. “They could have problems but it’s not going to lead to any kind of financial crisis,” he said. “But if you look at banks like JP Morgan, Bank of America… they broke down 20-30% in two weeks. When you have the plumbing of the financial system beginning to spring leaks, that is concerning.”

Deeper explanation with charts:

💡“I'd sell any rip in the banks here, I'd sell JP Morgan if we get this rally back to $250,” Dale said.

Trade War Concerns

Dale is worried that the trade wars will lead to shortages and supply chain issues worse than during Covid, “because they have to change all the shipping routes.”

“What worries me the most about the trade war is how vulnerable we are to many countries, but especially China,” he said. “You’re talking about a global trading system being torn down that has [been around for decades]… Rocky is going to be a soft word to use.”

Consumers Already Under Strain

“It’s already painful for a lot of people, and the pain is spreading from the bottom 70% to the top 30%,” Dale said. “Their homes are no longer piggy banks, not because they'd still don't have equity left. But they can't tap it because of rates and Americans have been tapping at that piggy bank for years.”

Add to that, consumer debt is off the charts, and credit card defaults are at their highest level since 2010, coming out of the Great Financial Crisis.

💡“I'm concerned, but as a trader I just have to look for opportunities to trade during this timeframe,” Dale said. “And it's probably one of the best times to be alive and be a trader. When it was just a one way street, everyone was a genius.”

Metals & Miners Update

“I did a show with Maggie and said that even gold and silver bulls hate the miners,” Dale said. “Well, the worm has turned.”

Explanation with charts:

Here’s the TL;DR of what Dale thinks:

• “I think silver is going to $36 on this run.”

• “The gold/silver ratio is starting to roll over… I think it’s heading down to 72 and then 50.”

• “I think there's going to be a big trade in silver, that probably really kicks in when the Fed is easing dramatically.”

TLT Update

Created with TradingView

Earlier this year, Dale thought TLT was going to break down under $88.50, which didn’t happen.

But over the last couple of weeks, “the bonds haven’t performed,” he said. “They have to hold $88, otherwise we could have a full-blown retest of $84.”

The Dollar

“The worm has turned [in terms of] the dollar being a safe haven,” Dale said.

Some live TA from Coach:

💡“I think foreign markets are set to outperform,” Dale said. “This is a kind of secular turn that can last for many years. Foreign markets outperforming the US doesn’t mean they won’t go down. It means they become the relative strength leader and American exceptionalism isn’t so exceptional anymore.”

And Finally… The Line of the Episode

To watch the full episode, right this way.

Enjoy,

Maggie

Important Disclaimer: It is crucial to remember that this article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Consult with a qualified financial advisor to assess your risk tolerance, investment goals, and overall financial plan.