The curse of living in interesting times… but at least yesterday we had Coach Dale Pinkert on Talking Markets to help us sort through it all.
Deservedly, lots of love for Dale in the chat:
ONCE AGAIN, WTF SILVER
A couple of weeks back, Dale said “Sell silver, buy oil” and that he thought we could see a significant pullback to $60.
Well, we’re not there, but the wind was certainly taken out of the silver parabola’s sails this week, with a truly historic Friday.
Dale saw some technical tells, including silver blowing off not leading to new lows in the gold-silver ratio. But he thinks the macro catalyst was the dollar, and how it strengthened on the news of the nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed chair. He thinks we may have seen the low in the dollar earlier this week…
As for what’s next, Dale said the $70 level in silver and the $4,600 level in gold are important. “If we get through $4,600, I think we could see $3,600 gold,” he said, whereas for silver, he said he needs more evidence before he can make a call: “I’m not just going to buy something that was in a train wreck… I think it will have to bounce around and do some work.”
💡”This is why I’ve been talking for a few weeks to raise cash. When you have cash, you could buy the break,” he said. “If you’re sitting there and you didn’t ring the register on anything, now you’re just trying to recapture your high watermark. Learn to sell.”
ENERGY AND AG
Oil: As he mentioned in his Talking Markets residency previously, Dale is still looking for $78 in WTI and “we’re half-way there” from when he first made the call. “Oil has woken up,” he said. “I wouldn’t be short this market.”
Wheat: “We’re on the verge of a weekly breakout off a 3-year base,” he said. “There’ve been many false starts, but the expression is, the longer the base, the bigger the launch into space… The fundamentals are terrible but there are so many things that could go wrong. So I think this is going to become the silver of the grain complex.”
Soybeans: “They also look good, not as good [as wheat] but we have successive higher lows. I think the beans can rally.”
🪢Peter Boockvar is also bullish ag
TECH UPDATE
Dale thinks the MAGS ETF is “still going to take out $62.”
Elsewhere in tech:
Palantir “is going to $90”
Broadcom is “trying to hold support but looks like a top to me”
Uber “on the verge of another breakdown”
SMH, the semiconductor ETF “gapped up on one stock that was a moonshot” but overall they look weak
CURRENCIES UPDATE
”I’m just more bullish the dollar,” Dale said “I have the same targets about 102 that I had when I was looking for it to hold 97. I think euro now is heading to 1.11 (from around 1.19), and Cable down towards 1.27 (from 1.37) and Aussie down to .63 (from around .70).”
“There’ll be bounces along the way,” he added. “I’m fading my own RSI work because the euro has a confirmed high on the daily, but this may have just washed all the euro bears and dollar bulls out.”
BROADER MARKETS
“The NASDAQ looks weaker than the S&P… I think there’s 3,000 downside in NASDAQ, I think it’s going to 22,400.”
“Even the S&P is only up net 17 handles in 3 months. To me, that smacks of distribution, not a market setting up for a melt-up… But if we get a pullback to around 6,000, it will be kind of like pulling back the string on a bow. You have to pull it back for it to launch again, and that’s what I think is going to happen in the S&P.”
“IWM got drilled last week and never recovered, it’s breaking down.”
AND FINALLY…
Some zen to wrap us up. Dale: “Markets are like the oceans. They trade in waves…Great surfers don’t try and catch every wave. They too wait for the right set-up.”
Have a great weekend.
Thank you Lorne, Kevin Cleary, Rafa, daniel fox, BetterCallSaulie, and many others for tuning in live…! We’ll see you back here on Monday at 4pm ET for Talking Markets with Tom Thornton.
Important Disclaimer: It is crucial to remember that this article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Consult with a qualified financial advisor to assess your risk tolerance, investment goals, and overall financial plan.
