Hi everyone,
Less than one month into 2026, and it already feels like we’ve had a full year’s worth of geopolitical events…
To help me make sense of it all, I sat down with Dee Smith, CEO and founder of Strategic Insight Group and one of the most brilliant polymaths I know.
As always when I catch up with Dee, he helped me pull the lens out and get above the fray of the media noise.
Here’s some of what we discussed:
History is Not a Continuous Process: Dee argues that change happens in “fits and starts” and that we have entered a “discontinuous” period of history that no one alive has ever faced. We are on the cusp of a change as transformational as the end of the Middle Ages.
The End of the Rules-Based Order: The post-WWII consensus is officially over. Dee describes the recent crisis in Venezuela as the “nail in the coffin” for an international system that relied on an agreed set of rules that nations simply no longer follow.
Entering a Hobbesian World: We are moving into a “might makes right” reality, a battle of all against all where power (economic, legal, and military) dictates outcomes because we can no longer agree on how to run our affairs.
The Fragmentation of Shared Reality: Technology has accelerated a world where neighbors no longer inhabit the same belief systems or facts, making it impossible to maintain the old “operating system” for the world.
The Gamification of War: From drone swarms to autonomous weapons, the “post-modern” era of conflict is removing the human element and the “friction” that previously acted as a deterrent to large-scale war.
Global Flashing Red Lights: From the strategic importance of the Arctic to the “black box” of Iran and the looming 2027 Taiwan deadline, the level of anxiety among foreign policy experts has never been higher.
Zero-Based Analysis for Investors: Dee’s advice for navigating this complexity? Discard your preconceptions. In a “tightly coupled” system of systems, the recent past no longer predicts the future, and investors must look only at the data to survive.
There’s a ton more in there… looking forward to your thoughts.
For more from Dee: Strategic Insight Group
Enjoy,
Maggie
Important Disclaimer: It is crucial to remember that this article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Consult with a qualified financial advisor to assess your risk tolerance, investment goals, and overall financial plan.
