Such a joy to wrap up the week on Talking Markets with Dale Pinkert again. And he was straight out of the gate with an all-timer:
“Confidence remains until the con is discovered in confidence.”
Thank you , , and many others for tuning in live…!
“THE PROBLEM IS IN THE DARKNESS”
So we’ve had the First Brands and Tricolor bankruptcies, and rippling fears about credit, with Jamie Dimon saying “there’s never just one cockroach.”
“The problem is in the darkness, and that’s the shadow banking system, which I believe dwarfs the traditional banking system and doesn’t have to disclose anything,” Dale said. “When banks were tight, a lot of people went to the shadow banks, and I think a lot of this is what’s going to come home to roost. If you want to know where the cockroaches are, that’s a house to go into.”
“THEY’RE TALKING ABOUT SILVER ON CNN NOW”
“People are getting promotional emails about buying silver now,” Dale said. “They’re talking about it on CNN.”
Last week Dale told us he was looking to get short silver if we rallied up to $53. Well, we did, and he did, but he was wrong that it was a market top. “I think I’d rather be right [on] the trade and wrong [on] the market than wrong [on] the trade and right [on] the market,” he said.
And what about now?
”I think silver is in a corrective phase,” Dale said. “[And] if we get to $46 silver that’s going to be an important crossroads because if it doesn’t hold it, you could then make a case for $40 silver.”
That’s a buying opportunity for bulls. On a longer term horizon, Dale thinks “eventually we’re going to see $70 and even triple digits down the road.”
🔔If you’re a buyer of silver right now watch out for the spreads because they’re “crazy,” Dale said. “You could have 4-5c between bid and offer. You’re going to get chopped on the spread if you throw in market orders - the only way to trade it is with limit orders.”
GOLD
“The gold-silver ratio is saying, if you’re going to be short metals, silver is your preferred short,” Dale said. “Gold’s going to hold up better than silver.” But Dale said (echoing Tony G on Wednesday), he doesn’t see any reason there couldn’t be a shakeout under $4,000, maybe back towards $3,800 - that would be a buying opportunity, he said.
However, he says while some people think it’s going all the back to $3,550, he doesn’t think so because of the momentum.
MINERS
“I think you have a lot of people possibly trapped in miners because they were just buying them at any price and being rewarded,” Dale said. “I talked about hedging your miners, I was early on that call and I bought DUST, which at one point this week looked like what it was going to turn into, I was going to get my Swifter out, but it looks like it turned a corner”:
S&P: FULL BLOOM TACO TRADE
After the ugliest of ugly closes last Friday, the S&P had a few pullbacks this week but “now it looks okay,” Dale said. “[Looks like] we’re going to trade up towards the top of the range, maybe even try a new high. Earlier today [Friday] it looked like we were going to take out a low, and then President Trump came out with something about how there won’t be 100% tariffs [on China], so the TACO trade is in full bloom.”
However…
Dale still thinks, as he said last week, that the character of the market has changed. “Look at the wide-ranging candles [on the chart],” he said. “There are 100 handle day trades in S&Ps now.”
“I’m looking at strength the next couple of weeks as being a selling opportunity,” he said. “I’m not getting back on the bull train up here. I still think we’re going to have that correction in the S&Ps that’s going to take us down to 6,350, then maybe 6,000, then maybe 5,800.”
AROUND THE HORN
NVIDIA: “I’m looking to put on some short positions up around $188, maybe $190, and I’ll get out if it makes new highs.”
SOXS: He’s still holding the bearish semiconductor ETF, and will buy even if it goes to $3.50
HYG: Made a recovery this week but Dale doesn’t think it makes a new high: “They should have trouble at $81,” he said. “This is saying credit spreads are coming back in again, but I don’t think they’re going to get as tight as they were before.”
Yen Crosses (currency pairs that include the Japanese yen as the base or quote currency): “These are proxies,” Dale said. Looking at AUDJPY, he said when it’s going down it’s a proxy for risk-off; when it’s going up it’s a proxy for risk-on.
“I’m looking to sell yen crosses - euro yen, Aussie yen - in the next couple of weeks,” he said.
Palantir: “I still think Palantir is in a topping pattern. It should make a new high, and I’d short that.”
MAGS: The Mag 7 ETF is around $64 now - Dale said if it gets to $66, he’d be looking to buy puts
CRYPTO
Next week is a very important week, Dale said. “We retraced almost the whole recovery [in BTC]”:
“I still think we’re going to take out the low,” Dale said. “I think Bitcoin has to make a stand around $100,000 sometime next week.”
Ethereum has held up better and has maybe bottomed, but “Bitcoin hasn’t,” he said. “I think Ethereum will outperform.”
WHAT KIND OF TRADER ARE YOU?
KEEP YOUR DUKES UP
“Forgive yourself if you had a rough week, it’s part of it,” Dale said. “You’re not going to be able to get in the boxing ring without getting hit. So just keep your dukes up and protect yourself, and don’t ever follow anyone blindly, including me.”
Something else to think about…
“A stockbroker named Bernard Baruch had some real good clients like Kennedy and Rockefeller, and they asked him: why are you so successful? And he said: I always sell too soon,” Dale said. “So, don’t be afraid of leaving chips on the table. At least you have chips you didn’t have before.”
And finally… Dale is a true original, but apparently…
“To become really elite, every trader has to watch Trading Places at least 10 times,” Dale said. “I’ve modeled myself after Louis Winthorpe.”
The more you know.
Have a great weekend,
Maggie
Important Disclaimer: It is crucial to remember that this article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Consult with a qualified financial advisor to assess your risk tolerance, investment goals, and overall financial plan.
