It was great fun to welcome Aahan Menon, Founder of Prometheus Research and fellow substacker to Talking Markets. Aahan uses a systematic quant approach to find the unique investing opportunities across global markets for institutional clients and distills that down for retail folks too so there was a little in here for everyone.
Warnings Signs Flashing. After holding a bullish US equity posture throughout 2025, the Prometheus dashboard is flashing yellow. Why? Slowing growth. The U.S. doesn’t have to slip into recession, but if the pace of growth isn’t accelerating from here, it will be hard to meet those lofty earnings expections. Against that backdrop Aahan doesn’t necessarily recommend shorting U.S. stocks, but he does think it is prudent to reduce exposure.
The Double-Edged Sword of Growth. A short trade Prometheus has been willing to put on - JGBs. Japan’s economy is finally been growing, but so is inflation leaving Japanese policymakers in a pickle. “When you look at Japanese conditions relative to the rest of the world, particularly Europe, it’s actually a really positive dynamic and so the best expression that you can have over there is basically to short JGB’s relative to the rest of the world, particularly EU bonds.” Aahan has some favorites on that trade that he shares.
Eye On Inventories. Another short Prometheus is eyeing up - Energy. While the streaming show Landman has been fulls of plot twists and turns, not much has been happening in the real world energy patch. Slow global growth has weighed on demand and kept a lid on oil prices, but Aahan sees potential for supply issues on the horizon. “….you have geopolitical tensions rising globally and they have caused a lot of shipping delays for energy and crude. As a result, there’s more oil on the water today than there was during COVID and so at some point, you’re going to have all this stuff hit inventories.” Look out below.
Enjoy!
For more on Aahan’s work: Prometheus Research
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