Joining us yesterday on Talking Markets was the guy one of our viewers called the “Usain Bolt of traders,” Tony Greer, founder of TG Macro.
As always, he brought some bold calls, a “superpower” for spotting winning sectors, and a classic TG quip or three.
Overall, he thinks the bull market is going to around a while: “There’s a lot of money and hot air going into and around this market, [but] we’re going to ride the volatility and stay bullish and buy the dips.”
SILVER GOING TO “ANOTHER ZIP CODE”
Tony says silver is “trending to a new level that it hasn’t found yet” and believes it is headed for “another zip code.”
He says that the noise of the “chest-beating silver bills” “tends to throw a crooked sentiment signal, where you think it’s overheated, but it’s really not,” he said. “The mechanics of this market [mean] silver is on it’s way to a new destination. It’s constantly higher auctions, new highs, the rally is getting steadier, and it’s doing things typical bull markets do.”
As for gold, TG says it’s pretty much doing the same thing. “We are in a bull market that is going to work this year just like it worked last year.”
💡Timing the Trade: For those feeling FOMO, Tony says it’s “never too late” but also advises “patience and time.” He does think silver will eventually come “hurling” back to support levels, perhaps in the 60−70 range, providing a golden entry point for those with dry powder.
OIL TAKES THE BATON?
While metals have had the spotlight, Tony thinks crude oil may just have “got the baton in the commodity bull market”.
Technical Breakout: In just six days, oil sliced through its 25, 50, and 100-day moving averages and is now testing the 200-day.
Ignoring the Bears: Despite bearish headlines about Venezuelan oil being “sold into the market,” the price has refused to break down: a “sit-up-in-your-chair” signal for any oil trader, he said.
Sector Plays: He is specifically eyeing Oil Services (OIH), saying it “looks cute right now,” while XLE, which “has been consolidating for half a decade,” “just woke up… and when that mother scratcher breaks out, it’s going to rally for half a decade.”
Overall, there are “bullish tailwinds in the commodity space right now,” he said. “If you want to be in the performing assets, you got to figure out how to get into the commodity space.”
TECH INVESTORS “QUAKING IN THEIR BOOTS”
Tony warns that the era of “blindly buying tech” might be hitting a wall. He notes that the bottom of the year-to-date leaderboard is currently a graveyard of software, cloud storage, internet, and cybersecurity, along with financials.
The Great Rotation?: Tony thinks maybe the rotation out of tech has begun, and “maybe this is where people want to sell some tech to buy some more platinum or palladium, or get in on this copper rally.”
TRUMP’S “MAIN STREET” PLAYBOOK
Tony highlighted a series of “curveballs” from the administration that favor Main Street over Wall Street, creating a very interventionist and volatile political landscape.
Interventions: Recent moves include capping credit card rates, rescheduling cannabis, and cutting mandatory vaccines.
Financials Re-rated: While these moves have “mashed” credit card banks, Tony is actually bullish on investment banks like Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan. He believes they will become “supremely profitable” as AI is applied to their platforms and headcounts shrink.
He also flagged that home builders and home construction are “all of a sudden quietly up 10%, and that’s with rates not going much lower, so I’m wondering if that’s telegraphing something else Trump is going to do.”
BITCOIN
Tony hasn’t ignored successfully bought the dip in Bitcoin at $82k, adding to the position once it cleared its 50-day moving average.
He’s looking to exit around $106k, prioritizing a 25% monthly return over a “long-term hold”. As a trader, he’s happy to catch the move and let others worry about the rest.
SEE YOU IN NASHVILLE?
We are 35 days away from lift-off of the first ever TG Macro Conference in Nashville. The Market House team will be there, and we’re so looking forward to meeting some of you folks in person - please DM me here on Substack if you’re going…!
And if you currently don’t have a ticket, there are still a small number left. You’ll be joining us, Tony, Jared Dillian, John Johnston, Doomberg, Grant Williams, Harris Kupperman, and Brent Johnson - it was always going to be epic with a line-up like that, but with the current market environment, it literally couldn’t be better timing to all get together in person and figure it out.
Hope to see you there…!
Thank you Brook Maese, Louis Philippe de S Bergeron, Darren, and many others for tuning in live.
