Well, after a dramatic quarter, markets finished up yesterday… at all time highs. From the WSJ: “The S&P 500 rose more than 10% in the quarter, posting its largest quarterly percentage gain since the fourth quarter of 2023.” What a comeback for US equities.
Joining me yesterday on Talking Markets to do a little bit of Monday morning quarterbacking on the quarter, and a lot of looking ahead, was TradeGateHub Coach Dale Pinkert, A.K.A. Market Gandalf A.K.A. Professor Pinkert, per our viewers in the chat.
Thank you , , and many others for tuning in live on Substack…!
Dollar Inflection Point?
“I think we’re very close to an inflection point in the dollar,” Dale said. “I’m looking to accumulate long dollar positions.”
Long-time Talking Markets viewers will know this is a big shift for Dale - he was dollar bearish for some time.
“At a minimum,” Dale thinks there could be “a very nice bear market rally from wherever the low comes in in the DXY, back to about 102, 103.” That would be taking us back to where we were in April before the big dip.
After that, “we’ll either resume the bear market or this could turn into a dollar squeeze, a liquidity problem, which is something the market’s not showing yet.”
Here’s Dale showing his thinking:
Dale will be “trying [DXY] at 96 tomorrow (today) if offered,” he said.
He also flagged that Scott Bessent said over the weekend the US “still has a strong dollar policy.”
As ever, Dale listed out what could make him wrong on this:
“What could go wrong could be tariffs. It could be the narrative that we’re going a lot lower in interest rates - that Powell could acquiesce. The president wants us to be like Switzerland and have negative interest rates, only if that happened, we’d be more like Zimbabwe than Switzerland.”
Stocks Update
Dale still thinks we may correct back to 5,700-5,800 in the S&P, but thinks “the 7,000 club is going to be right by year end,” and that “the prolonged bear market begins next year” as rollover debt starts to hit.
Palantir: 🚩
Palantir “put in some pretty lousy action last week,” Dale said. “I think this is a top and if we get through $124, we could be looking at $85-100… That would still be within an uptrend, but that’s a pretty good knock if you’re long. Should that play out, you’d probably want to ring the register on at least half your position and have some cash ready.”
(Other) Tech Stocks
Uber: Dale’s bearish expectations for Uber were playing out pretty much until last Friday, when it picked right back up and is now at all-time highs. “So maybe wait for $90 to be taken out in Uber,” he said.
Google: “We’re at a pretty important inflection point here in Google,” he said. “Back under $161, I think Google is a candidate for taking out the April low.”
Bitcoin
The Bitcoin action is “tempering my bullishness in the market,” Dale said. “Normally Bitcoin leads. [We have] a second lower high in Bitcoin. And there’s probably a lot of people that think it’s just a layup to new highs… But if we take out $106,000 again, we can make another trip down to the mid to low 90s, with $92,000 being very important for the long-term structure.”
💡“I think it could make another trip down,” Dale said. “It’s not leading as it normally does, being the most liquid and reflexive market out there.”
Metals Update
“There aren’t really a lot of commodities I want to buy now,” Dale said. “I’m bearish metals. I’m not short, but I’m going to be patient and wait for buying opportunities in the miners and metals later in the summer.”
Here’s his summer outlook:
Gold: “I’m not sure about the short-term here,” Dale said. “I actually think sometime late summer or in the fall that I’m going to have an opportunity to buy gold in the $2,800 range.
Gold Miners: “We might get one more high in GDX, but we’re diverging in GDX. We haven’t confirmed a high since [April],” he said. “Even if we make another high, it’s not going to confirm, so you may want to take some of your miners off the table if it pushes up to new highs.”
Silver: “I know I’m going to get a lot of hate mail but… if we negate the breakout at $34, that opens the door for $32, and under there we could be looking at $26 silver.”
Oil & Nat Gas Update
On crude oil, Dale says “it’s an IDK” (I don’t know) for him. “We're back at important support, so we could have bounces. I actually got out a little early on half my position before the spike. I wasn't there for the whole ride, but my target was $74.”
So, why was his target $74?
🪢Here’s what Dale said on Talking Markets at the start on June: “We’re knocking on the door of a breakout at 63 or 64 that could give us 68 in a hurry and maybe even 75… So I’m constructive oil.”
🪢And on Talking Markets back in March, Dale told Harry Melandri: “I really think there's going to be an event in the Middle East, I think the Israelis are going to try and take out Iran’s nuclear program.”
Back to right now, Dale says: “It looks like a broken market to me. We could have bounces, but it doesn’t offer the same opportunity now that it did [before], so I’m going nothing here.”
Elsewhere, on natural gas, Dale said: “I do like the way Nat Gas is getting hammered, and if it continued down to below $2.50, I'll probably attempt longs.”
As Always, Classic Dale Wisdom
“It’s very difficult to continue to make headway with everyone on one side of the boat.”
“Markets always look the worst near a bottom, and the best near a top.”
“Don’t make any trade too important… Make each trade just another trade, and that way, if it doesn’t work, you don’t go fetal; and when it works, you don’t do cartwheels. It’s just another trade.”
“Your best baseball players aren’t your long ball hitters, they hit for an average. And good traders grind it out, they don’t try and get rich on any one trade.”
And finally… 😄
Enjoy,
Maggie
Important Disclaimer: It is crucial to remember that this article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Consult with a qualified financial advisor to assess your risk tolerance, investment goals, and overall financial plan.
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